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Issues with older states

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fliboflasm
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Post: #1
Issues with older states

Another flaw which I am horrified by is the problem of older states going off the rails. Apparently there are flaws in the calculations which cause:


  1. Unemployment to rise out of control- even in a prospering economy. Nobody knows for a fact that the future is going to be a bleak jobless one.
  2. Corruption and the shadow economy spiral out of control. Why would that happen in an advanced state? An economically advanced, high tech and socially advanced nation will experience greatly falling crime rates for many obvious reasons. I don't have the time to post detailed statistics but this is a fact.
  3. Currencies should not automatically deflate in older states. I have observed that even with a correct money supply ratio currencies sink. Why? This might be great for pursuing a "Chinese" strategy of currency devaluation for exports but the regents should have the choice to do this or not.
  4. Emigration rises out of control(possibly due to the other flaws.) Why would people leave a nation that had been built into a paradise?- assuming it was governed well over the course of decades. Some nations have near zero emigration- namely the United States- in even it's darkest years.


I just got off the phone with my ex and her state has the same problem. I have observed numerous older states and this is not a fluke. We both are out of tasks and our only challenge left is to cure cancer. My state uses the U.S. template so completing it is easy and I will do it ahead of schedule. The question is why bother trying to govern in an excellent manner or try to keep the regent alive if the calculations have such a glaring flaw? We both see little reason to keep playing or found second states when our regents die if this is not promptly corrected.

26.07.2010 13:45
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Lord Alexander
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Taunzaar
Post: #2
RE: Issues with older states

These three states demonstrate that it is definitely possible to defeat these negative tendencies:
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/36439/detail6.html
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/32531/detail1.html
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/42434/detail1.html
300 quarters old Neo Megiddo has an extremely strong currency and low shadow economy and corruption.
365 quarters old (dead state) Bulgaria had a nearly zero migration and average shadow economy and corruption.
344 quarters old (dead state) NewRuhrpott2 had an adequate level of unemployment, strong currency, average shadow economy and low corruption.

26.07.2010 18:50
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fliboflasm
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Post: #3
RE: Issues with older states

I will look that over. Again, I should point out that I don't say these things to be negative- but it is frustrating. My ex is here with me( in the bathroom at the moment) and I also should point out that we do share a computer often and I had not mentioned that previously. She also is frustrated and if anyone has any ideas on decisions that would stop these things from happening I am all ears.
I felt that we went out of our way to make good decisions but maybe there is something that we missed. I strive to do the best in everything that I do but nobody is infallible. Perhaps a task that was solved incorrectly or misfired? I Felt that the budget decisions were always based on sound economics but one thing had been eating at me: Is it possible that when states carry a large surplus that the calculator misreads it as a deficit/debt and then it skews the calculations?

27.07.2010 09:10
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fliboflasm
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Post: #4
RE: Issues with older states

That was interesting. I looked the states over and once again it does seem interesting that many successful states tend to choose identical reforms. I have looked at many states besides these and I see strong correlations in results most of the time.
I noticed that Neo Megiddo and Bulgaria were dictatorships with minimal civil rights scores while NewRuhrpott was a free country.
Bulgaria was a dead state so there were no comparisons to the average state to be made but I noticed that both of the other 2 had much smaller(as low as 25%) of both population and economies. I think that large economies may have a bug in them somewhere- possibly more than the age of the state.
Neo Megiddo was interesting because it enacted both pacifism and militarism. I noticed that it did have an unemployment of 31.48% though.
Bulgaria had U of 20% and a money supply of almost exactly a 1-1 ratio.
NewRuhrpott2 had a very strong civil rights score and U of 8.31% but they also had an interest rate of 42.33%! Holy smokes!

27.07.2010 10:23
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Lord Alexander
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Taunzaar
Post: #5
RE: Issues with older states

I looked at other old states. It looks like many of them do not have problems with migration, shadow economy and corruption, so I think we can put aside these problems. But absolute majority of old states have weak currencies and I found only four old states that have unemployment lower than 10% (excluding states that have an active project).

It is the discussed above 344 quarters old dead state NewRuhrpott2,
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/42434/detail1.html
265 quarters old Ehngha,
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/41770/detail1.html
262 quarters old Bacchus
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/41903/detail1.html
and 249 quarters old SBPII.
http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/43185/detail1.html

They all applied Laicism, Administration Reform, Freigeld, Free land, Employment Reform, Negative Income Tax, Egalitarian Transhumanism, Pacifism and Judicial Reform. All except SBPII applied Bank Reform I. NewRuhrpott2 and Bacchus also implemented rarely applied Protectionism.

All four states have very low GINI, high statism and higher than average Population density. They have dissimilar taxation strategies and dissimilar situation with corruption and shadow economy. NewRuhrpott2 and SBPII have strong currencies and adequate Money supply, but Ehngha and Bacchus have weak currencies and excessive Money supply. Only NewRuhrpott2 have high Nominal interest and high Saving ratio.

28.07.2010 19:53
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Sheep
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Tazmon
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Post: #6
RE: Issues with older states

Tazmon now counts 245 quarters and has an unemployment rate below 10%:

http://www.ars-regendi.com/state/43915/detail1.html

If you have a look at reforms, GINI and statism you will notice some difference to the mentioned states.

I know point 1, 2 and 4 myself, but there seems to be at least one workaround. Which has no strong connection with any reform... I needed 2 1/2 years and some talk with experienced players to nail it down, but it can be found. Big Grin

Point 3 is simple in comparison, currency value is heavily influenced by money supply...


8.8. 9.9.

Neue Aufgabe: Ratingagenturen
Inoffizielles Wiki: http://arsregendi.wikia.com/wiki/ARS_Regendi_Wiki

New task: Rating Agencies
Inofficial wiki: http://arsregendi.wikia.com/wiki/ARS_Regendi_Wiki
28.07.2010 20:11
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Lord Alexander
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Taunzaar
Post: #7
RE: Issues with older states

Yes, it does not have Freigeld and Free land reforms, its GINI is very high and statism is very low, so it looks like it is not necessary to take the left-wing path to control the unemployment.

But Fliboflasm is right. There are so few states that managed to take unemployment under control that it becomes clear that something is very wrong with the economic model.

EDIT: I made a small mistake.

This post was last modified: 29.07.2010 04:23 by Lord Alexander.

28.07.2010 21:00
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Sheep
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Tazmon
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Post: #8
RE: Issues with older states

Lord Alexander Wrote:
There are so few states that managed to take unemployment under control that it becomes clear that something is very wrong with the economic model.


The tendency in real Germany is a slow but steady rise of unemployment. It's partly hidden because of government actions but if we assume the development won't change enormous unemployment will become usual.

Anyway, nobody can say for sure how it will be. So accept the challenge of late game at Ars Regendi and figure out how you can get rid of those last problems...


8.8. 9.9.

Neue Aufgabe: Ratingagenturen
Inoffizielles Wiki: http://arsregendi.wikia.com/wiki/ARS_Regendi_Wiki

New task: Rating Agencies
Inofficial wiki: http://arsregendi.wikia.com/wiki/ARS_Regendi_Wiki
28.07.2010 22:34
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fliboflasm
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Post: #9
RE: Issues with older states

I have some free time again and I am going to look over some of those states. I did see some of the analysis and I need some time to process it all before forming an opinion.

Quote:
The tendency in real Germany is a slow but steady rise of unemployment. It's partly hidden because of government actions but if we assume the development won't change enormous unemployment will become usual.

Anyway, nobody can say for sure how it will be. So accept the challenge of late game at Ars Regendi and figure out how you can get rid of those last problems...


That may be true. I don't know if it still applies but I believe that for a long time the German economic model was one of a tight money supply, slow growth and high unionism. It had the drawback of making it expensive to bring on employees and lowering unemployment but it did have the advantage of being steady. Perhaps the game reflects a bias towards the German model? I am thinking about creating a split thread for cultural differences. It wont necessarily say that one is better or worse but it should be noted that there certainly are differences.

29.07.2010 09:28
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Helsworth
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Westfallen
Post: #10
RE: Issues with older states

Well taking into account the projects, unemployment shouldn't rise if one manages to colonize the moon and make the trip to mars... Of course the replacement of human soldiers with battle robots does take its toll on the employment figure. When that task comes I'm choosing a military made up of space marines, not dreadnaughts Tongue


The myth that the founding of American Republic was based on the philosophy of John Locke could only have been maintained, because the history of Leibniz's influence was suppressed.
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This post was last modified: 29.07.2010 11:54 by Helsworth.

29.07.2010 11:53
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