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"Starved to Death" Bug

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JambalayaSam
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Colombia IV
Germania II
Post: #1
"Starved to Death" Bug

There appears to be a bug in the starved-to-death calculations on non-world states. Image below from a state with the Colombia template:

https://imgur.com/a/1Sv8ICg

I did recently pass the Labor Market reform; so that may have changed how my state compares to the average one.

Note also: average immigration is 8% and mortality is 47+%. The world is truly dark and full of terrors.

Wolfram alpha reports: the number of starved to death is roughly 10% of the stars in our galaxy, 28% of all people who have ever lived, and 4500% the current population of the earth.

This post was last modified: 06.03.2019 00:53 by JambalayaSam.

06.03.2019 00:51
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optimus rex
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Post: #2
RE: "Starved to Death" Bug

Hi!

Thanks for your report. Maybe this could help...thanks to MrProper for (t)his posting.

MrProper Wrote:
For this case as well as your other recent bug report one could give almost the same answer. Hence, I save some time and elaborate my response in this thread, while giving only a short reply in the other one.

Data displayed in the average state section is occasionally nice for the sake of comparison, but it should not be interpreted as a state in sum. This is simply due to the fact that all of this is based on averaged data, taken from states within a narrow time frame roughly equivalent to the current quarter of your state. You are probably aware of the fact that occasionally here and there a crash occurs, and here lies the inherent problem of averaged values. In particular a singular, yet extreme values tend to ruin entire statistics.

I start with a moderate case as example why the average state should not be considered representative. Take 3 states:
  • State A has a GDP of 7 000 Bil. € and a positive Balance of +1 000 Bil. €
  • State B has a GDP of 10 000 Bil. € and a slightly negative Balance of -1 000 Bil. €
  • State C was subject of experiments by its regent, and about to face exitus. It has a high GDP of 100 000 Bil. € and a massive debt of -450 000 Bil. €
The average state based on these values would have a GDP of 39 000 Bil. €, and a debt of 150 000 Bil. € (almost 4 times the GDP!). I did not calculate the debt rates, but by eye it is easy to see how big they should be round about (like -140%) and that it will not match with the other values.

Looking trough my history, I tried to find a state with some values that would ruin the statics in your example. Unfortunately, I did not have a good match with respect to GDP and debt. Nonetheless, this one should be a good example for debt rate. Once the crash occured, the GDP practically went down to zero. In that sense, this state will have little influence on the average. The debt rate is, however, at 34,220.52 % (Even when averaged with 1000 other states, this will still add a positive 34% on top of the average debt rate).

You see, it is not really a bug, but just a mathematical problem. The developers are aware of it, but there is not much one can do about it. Even if you use a median, you do not get rid of all effects on these numbers.


https://forum.ars-regendi.com/average-de...#pid434154

06.03.2019 14:07
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MrProper
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Post: #3
RE: "Starved to Death" Bug

To me, the worst about all this is the huge number of writing errors which I found while reading trough my own text passage. Not exactly the standard I like to keep.

That being said, thank you for posting on this issue Sam. As I wrote about one and half a year ago, there is not much one can do about these occasional incidents. The only actual solution is to delete data from crashed states from the data base, and that would be lavish work. Just wait for some days, and the extreme outliers in the average state will disappear.


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07.03.2019 17:10
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