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North - South Korean War?

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dragonflare88
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Post: #11
RE: North - South Korean War?

Edvard Kardelj Wrote:
Sorry to disappoint you, but there isn't going to be any war between the Koreas. Nor are the North Korean people going to rise up to free themselves.Nor will their conditions improve

North Korea survives on brinkmanship. The core governing philosophy, called juche, isolates the country's economy from every other economy except China. The country produces no exports of any real value to anyone.

The leadership stays in power by relying on a very small circle to enforce its position. This allows them to loot the national treasury, carve it up into a small number of pieces, each of which makes a substantial bribe, and offer these bribes to the top military leaders, who in turn keep their Golden Goose on the throne.

Whenever that treasury runs close to low, they threaten war with South Korea, Japan or the United States. This inevitably leads to ransom money being sent to Pyongyang, which the Kim family gladly accepts.

To actually go to war, however, would be a disaster. The generals like the free money they get for doing not much of anything. Putting them to work will only piss them off, leading to regime change.

Each generation that ascends to the throne will experience a temporary period at both he beginning and end of their reign of political instability. They will have to locate the money,pay the bribes, find anyone else who knows how to get the money, and kill them before these other people who can access the money and use it to bribe their assassins. At the end of their careers,old age and infirmity will convince the generals their patron is going to die soon, and therefore won't be there to butter their toast for them much longer. They will begin looking for more money elsewhere. For this reason, a successor must be groomed (i.e., trained in getting money and who to bribe and how much) before old age takes its toll, but not too soon or too well, for fear the younger generation will remove the elder and replace him before nature takes its course.

The people of North Korea live in total misery, as no money that could be used to bribe a general will be wasted on public services of any kind. This same misery ensures they will never acquire the skills or tools or organization needed to free themselves. This is why reforms will never be implemented. If they ever are implemented, the Kim Dynasty will soon go extinct

China should just annex North Korea.

20.08.2015 03:38
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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #12
RE: North - South Korean War?

They don't want it. They only support the Kim family because it pisses the West off,

20.08.2015 04:06
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Helsworth
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Post: #13
RE: North - South Korean War?

Edvard Kardelj Wrote:
Sorry to disappoint you, but there isn't going to be any war between the Koreas. Nor are the North Korean people going to rise up to free themselves.Nor will their conditions improve

Nobody claimed any of that. Smile


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20.08.2015 07:45
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Lord Alexander
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Post: #14
RE: North - South Korean War?

Edvard Kardelj Wrote:
Whenever that treasury runs close to low, they threaten war with South Korea, Japan or the United States. This inevitably leads to ransom money being sent to Pyongyang, which the Kim family gladly accepts.

Please, provide some source(s) in support of your assertion that escalations of hostility actually help DPRK to secure more foreign aid. I am genuinely interested to know if it is true or not.

20.08.2015 12:31
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Ajay Alcos
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Post: #15
RE: North - South Korean War?

The Kim's are eccentric, overly-indulgent demagogues but they aren't fools. To believe North Korea stands an actual chance bettering its fortunes is of course wishful thinking. Thus they are by necessity forced into a position acting out the role of a thug; blackmailing, coercing, manipulating and cajoling just to survive and maintain their grip over their domains. This is going to be the state of affairs for a very long-time, and unless the world wishes to see a sizable proportion of humanity wiped out by nuclear weaponry; I don't see the Kim's or whatever may succeed them going away any time soon.

20.08.2015 14:59
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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #16
RE: North - South Korean War?

Lord Alexander Wrote:
Please, provide some source(s) in support of your assertion that escalations of hostility actually help DPRK to secure more foreign aid. I am genuinely interested to know if it is true or not.


It is better to refer to this money not as "foreign aid", rather as "extortion money" or a ransom. The money isn't being demanded to alleviate suffering, which is what foreign aid's purpose isThis money is simply being used by the Kim family to hold on to power by bribing the leaders of their military and a few members of the Politburo.

I tried to load some clickable links for you, and received this error message:

"As a member with less than 10 posts, you are not allowed to include clickable urls in your threads or posts yet"

20.08.2015 16:14
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Helsworth
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Post: #17
RE: North - South Korean War?

In my opinion, NK flexing its muscles usually happens in contexts in which China wants to send a message to everyone else or in which NK is trying to send a message to everyone else and China too. Messages pertaining to geopolitical matters and requirement of various resources (physical or financial) for the country - and yes, usually it doesn't trickle do the people...
In order for the two Koreas to unite, the Chinese & the Americans would have to agree on an iron-clad contract of sorts - something which I'm sure we won't get to see in our lifetimes.


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20.08.2015 16:48
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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #18
RE: North - South Korean War?

Over the past 20 centuries, China has been the dominant economic power worldwide for 18 of them. The only reason why Westerners view China as a poor backward country is because our countries haven't been around long enough to see the historical context in which the Chinese economy exists.

The Chinese take the long view of history. Western democracy, the free market, centers of trade based in NYC or LA or London, these are all very recent events which may or may not last. The refer to themselves as "The Middle Kingdom"- literally, the center of the world. This would seem egocentric if it were not borne out by the facts. When Europeans considered 40 to be old age, were illiterate and thought anything larger than 200 square miles was big enough to call itself an empire, China was on the cutting edge of math, science, poetry, art, and medicine, and had been there for a millennium. Genghis Khan recognized this. Rather than simply annihilating China the way he did Russia and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, he hired the Chinese to be his civil servants, so he could go on to the fun parts of conquest, leaving mundane things such as collecting tax revenues to the Chinese.

For all of these reasons, expecting the Chinese to see America as a country at an equal level and one they should therefore collaborate with is insane. This is why they ignored US pleas to let the renminbi float for so long. Particularly when we adopted a patronizing tone about the issue. To them, it sounded like an old man being lectured by a child- an extremely gifted child, perhaps, but not mature enough to scold an elder. Obama was only successful in convincing Beijing to do this because he treated them with the respect they demanded.

As for NK the Chinese don't have much in common with that country, and regard it as something of a geopolitical joke. However, NK frustrates the piss out of all of China's major rivals (US, Japan, Philippines, South Korea and the EU). The fact that this little backwater drives us to singular distraction makes it a very useful diplomatic tool. If Beijing wants Washington to jump, they make noises suggesting they may be willing to poke Pyongyang in the eye with a stick. Washington equals with delight at the prospect of irritating the Kim family, and thus rolls over and does whatever Beijing wants.

This post was last modified: 20.08.2015 17:22 by Edvard Kardelj.

20.08.2015 17:14
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Lord Alexander
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Post: #19
RE: North - South Korean War?

Edvard Kardelj Wrote:
I tried to load some clickable links for you, and received this error message:

"As a member with less than 10 posts, you are not allowed to include clickable urls in your threads or posts yet"

It is the measure against spammers and especially spam bots. But forum's software will not be able to stop you if you will insert spaces into “http ://”, “www .” and “. com”, “. net” etc. parts and will not use [url] code. Then we will be able to copy the links and remove the spaces manually. Alternatively you can wait until your post count will exceed 10 and then post the links.

20.08.2015 18:05
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Helsworth
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Post: #20
RE: North - South Korean War?

@Edvard Kardelj
The chinese elites are not geniuses either. They devalued their currency for so long and kept living standards poor in order to gain competitive advantage & bring it net sums of foreign currency. Every net exporter of goods and services is a net importer of aggregate demand & vice-versa. In a way it's understandable. The Chinese had to purchase technology & strategic resources - they couldn't buy those things with yuans, they had to buy it with US dollars - the universally accepted currency in international markets.
Instead of keeping their money in their reserve account at the FED, the chinese chose to purchase US government interest bearing bonds - in essence, the Chinese keep their dollars in saving accounts at the FED - upon those sums they earn a better interest than they would on reserves. The FED pays around 0,25% interest on bank reserves. While all this was happening, China sending net wealth to the US in exchange for money, the US military was encircling them & reinforcing their positions. China has a LOOONG way to go if they want to achieve better living standards for their citizens & a better environment, the latter being destroyed in service of Chinese oligarchic elites who get to buy luxury goods from abroad with the foreign currency their sweat shops bring in.


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20.08.2015 19:16
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