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North - South Korean War?

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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #21
RE: North - South Korean War?

Helsworth Wrote:
@Edvard Kardelj
The chinese elites are not geniuses either. They devalued their currency for so long and kept living standards poor in order to gain competitive advantage & bring it net sums of foreign currency. Every net exporter of goods and services is a net importer of aggregate demand & vice-versa. In a way it's understandable. The Chinese had to purchase technology & strategic resources - they couldn't buy those things with yuans, they had to buy it with US dollars - the universally accepted currency in international markets.
Instead of keeping their money in their reserve account at the FED, the chinese chose to purchase US government interest bearing bonds - in essence, the Chinese keep their dollars in saving accounts at the FED - upon those sums they earn a better interest than they would on reserves. The FED pays around 0,25% interest on bank reserves. While all this was happening, China sending net wealth to the US in exchange for money, the US military was encircling them & reinforcing their positions. China has a LOOONG way to go if they want to achieve better living standards for their citizens & a better environment, the latter being destroyed in service of Chinese oligarchic elites who get to buy luxury goods from abroad with the foreign currency their sweat shops bring in.


There are many ways to govern.I will focus on two, for the purpose of this reply. No-one governs alone. The term monarchy -or rule by one- is a misnomer. A monarch with no supporters is little different than an madman barking orders at strangers who never follow them. Power is defined as the ability to get people to do what you want. It is derived from those who prop up your regime, and the proportion of people propping you up compared to the total population you rule over determines how you shall govern.

In a Western democracy such as Romania, you ascend to power based on elections which are usually two rounds unless your get over half in the first. In the end, the winning candidate for President of Romania in 2014 had to secure around 3 million votes in the first round and 6 million in the second to win. Assuming that all 3 million from the first voted for him in the second, that means he has to offer 6 million people something they want. If he tried to loot the national treasury and split it into 6 million parts, sending each voter a bribe equal to one six millionth of Romania's national budget, each voter would receive approximately $35.88 USD. Thats not a big enough bribe to buy a vote. So instead, he needs to invest in pubic works projects that benefit all Romanians, improving the average quality of life. Thats the only way he can give 6 million voters something worth voting for him.

In China, where the President is chosen by the Central Standing Committee of the National people's Conference. There are 12 members of the Central Committee. To secure the 12 votes needed to win election, the President of China can take the national budget and divide it by twelve, to offer each Central Committee member $916666666667.00 USD. That IS enough to buy a vote.

Now, if he does this, the people of China will not receive the basic services we enjoy. However, a politician is not a humanitarian. A humanitarian cares about the living conditions of the rural poor in the Gobi desert. A politician cares about power. The only reason why the President of Romania doesn't act this way s because he can't- your constitution requires him to appeal to too many people to gain power for him to simply bribe them.

It is much much easier to bribe someone than to invest in public works projects and quality of life programs which may or may not work, and even if they do work, aren't necessarily going to appeal to the people who's votes you want to get. If politicians in your country could get away with a simple bribe, they absolutely would, which is what Ceacescu and Dej did. The only reason why your Presidents don't do this today is because you might shoot them.

After all, you've done it before.

This post was last modified: 20.08.2015 20:53 by Edvard Kardelj.

20.08.2015 20:45
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Helsworth
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Post: #22
RE: North - South Korean War?

Unlike countries with a history of sovereign power, Romania is a financial colony. Under the sphere of influence of the USSR, political elites in the country did what they had to - behave like whores. Ceausescu was demented. He chose NOT to negotiate debt payments & negotiate smaller sums, during the Arab oil crisis. He chose to simply make people tighten their belts, and send more production toward exports.
In January 89, Romania had paid all of its external debts (debts owed in foreign currency). Ceausescu's austerity persisted past that point, up to the time of the revolution and his execution.
The greatest zombie economic myth which has been kept alive since the Classical gold standard era *which wasn't true even then*, is that government taxation finances government spending. It's the other way around. Before the national government can tax or pay interest on its own IOUs, it needs to spend them first in the economy. So long as the great majority of the public believes this bullshit, politicians can justify all the poverty and all the conflicts between people - through ignorance, the elites retain and expand their power, while making everyone else sacrifice for their interests.


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20.08.2015 21:48
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dragonflare88
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Post: #23
RE: North - South Korean War?

North and South Korea are firing artillery shells at each other. Also, I don't quite understand how North Korea regime aquires the foreign aid that is need to bride for supporters. Do they get it from China?





PS: I'm glad this post has sparked such a large discussion Smile

20.08.2015 22:29
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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #24
RE: North - South Korean War?

dragonflare88 Wrote:
North and South Korea are firing artillery shells at each other. Also, I don't quite understand how North Korea regime aquires the foreign aid that is need to bride for supporters. Do they get it from China?





PS: I'm glad this post has sparked such a large discussion Smile



They obtain money from extortion. An American journalist or hiker or missionary stupidly walks across the border into NK. The police arrest him, the government declares some draconian sentence. Then the US sends envoys with suitcases full of cash to Pyongyang, apologizing like some abused child.

Don't call this"foreign aid". It isn't. It's ransom money


Helsworth Wrote:
Unlike countries with a history of sovereign power, Romania is a financial colony. Under the sphere of influence of the USSR, political elites in the country did what they had to - behave like whores. Ceausescu was demented. He chose NOT to negotiate debt payments & negotiate smaller sums, during the Arab oil crisis. He chose to simply make people tighten their belts, and send more production toward exports.
In January 89, Romania had paid all of its external debts (debts owed in foreign currency). Ceausescu's austerity persisted past that point, up to the time of the revolution and his execution.
The greatest zombie economic myth which has been kept alive since the Classical gold standard era *which wasn't true even then*, is that government taxation finances government spending. It's the other way around. Before the national government can tax or pay interest on its own IOUs, it needs to spend them first in the economy. So long as the great majority of the public believes this bullshit, politicians can justify all the poverty and all the conflicts between people - through ignorance, the elites retain and expand their power, while making everyone else sacrifice for their interests.


You are exactly correct, an this is why the bailout in Greece is going to fail, just like Varoufarkis said it would. Tspirias should have accepted Grexit and if necessary defaulted on the loans. He had the mandate of the people to do so.

20.08.2015 23:07
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Lord Alexander
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Post: #25
RE: North - South Korean War?

Edvard Kardelj Wrote:
They obtain money from extortion. An American journalist or hiker or missionary stupidly walks across the border into NK. The police arrest him, the government declares some draconian sentence. Then the US sends envoys with suitcases full of cash to Pyongyang, apologizing like some abused child.

Don't call this"foreign aid". It isn't. It's ransom money

Now you should have the ability to post links, so please provide some source(s) that support your assertion that DPRK receives serious money from escalations of hostility.

I do not know how much money they usually receive in exchange for imprisoned foreigners, but I strongly doubt that they catch enough foreigners to acquire enough money for them to satisfy the whole ruling elite of DPRK. Unlike Al Quaeda they do not have steady source of hostages to make serious money in such manner. So how else their hostile escapades help them to make money?

This post was last modified: 20.08.2015 23:44 by Lord Alexander.

20.08.2015 23:43
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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #26
RE: North - South Korean War?

https://books.google.com/books?id=-4lmAg...on&f=false

http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/02/11/all-...rth-korea/

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/0...akes-money

http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~vcrawfor/Hohlfeld03Essay.pdf
There is more to it that merely kidnapping hapless travelers, of course. DPRK lobs a missile at ROK or Japan every time it needs money and cannot find a kidnapping victim.

This is what government by Mafia clan looks like.

21.08.2015 00:03
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dragonflare88
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Post: #27
RE: North - South Korean War?

Wow, North Korea is much more facinating than I knew.

21.08.2015 01:32
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Lord Alexander
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Post: #28
RE: North - South Korean War?

Edvard Kardelj Wrote:
https://books.google.com/books?id=-4lmAg...on&f=false

http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/02/11/all-...rth-korea/

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/0...akes-money

http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~vcrawfor/Hohlfeld03Essay.pdf
There is more to it that merely kidnapping hapless travelers, of course. DPRK lobs a missile at ROK or Japan every time it needs money and cannot find a kidnapping victim.

This is what government by Mafia clan looks like.

The first three links simply do not support your assertion about profitability of escalations of hostility for DPRK elites.

First link asserts that DPRK receives money in exchange for prisoners and is involved in other illicit activities, but it does not show that escalations of hostility actually help it in this.
Second link is just a bunch of hawkish nonsense.
Third link is asserting that government of DPRK is selling drugs.

But the drug trafficking, money laundering and selling hostages are the activities that all can be performed more effectively in absence of constant escalations of hostility.

The fourth link is more relevant because it actually makes the claim that DPRK in the past was able to successfully use nuclear threats to get food aid and heavy fuel oil from other nations.

But the problem with such interpretation is the fact that USA, the country that is the main source of food aid for DPRK, is usually responding to new escalations of hostility by halting the provision of previously agreed aid. Maybe your logic can be applied to 90s, when DPRK was able to secure some aid in exchange for agreement to scrap its nuclear program, but after that it was constantly punished for breaking its promises. DPRK could easily receive much more aid if it had continued to honor its previous agreements, but for some reason it instead preferred to more and more escalate the situation.

I think that much more plausible explanation is that Kims are genuinely afraid that USA will topple them, for example like they did it with Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. To avoid such fate they are desperately trying to scare away the USA and their allies. And for the sake of the people that are living in both Koreas I sincerely hope that they will succeed in this.

21.08.2015 03:13
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Edvard Kardelj
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Post: #29
RE: North - South Korean War?

It depends on who wins the Presidency. Bush did lump them in with the "axis of evil". The other two member states of which were targets of successful United States coups.He didn't go after the Kim dynasty, perhaps because of their close links to China. China going to war to defend the Kims seems unrealistic, however they do hold the majority of our national debt…. and can call in those loans anytime they want to. Which would destroy our economy overnight.

As long as the Kims are on good terms with Beijing, they're fine. It is conceivable the US could elect a complete fuckwit all too willing to crater the economy (we have done so in the past). However, I don't think either Sanders or Clinton is that fuckwit. As for Republicans, most of them aren't that fuckwit either. There are a few though….

And eventually, Chinese support will wither. The day that happens, the Kims are dead. It will happen so suddenly, you'll think the CIA was just waiting behind the curtains in their bedrooms for the call from the Beijing Embassy with their guns drawn and loaded. Thats because they most likely have been.

This post was last modified: 21.08.2015 04:28 by Edvard Kardelj.

21.08.2015 04:27
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Lord Alexander
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Post: #30
RE: North - South Korean War?

DPRK is not an average socialist state that can be relatively easily transformed into corrupt capitalist republic, it is full of people that do not have even basic idea how to live differently than they are living now.

Chinese leadership supports DPRK primarily because it understands very well that without prolonged and costly military occupation by China the collapse of DPRK will cause humanitarian catastrophe that will affect all its neighbors and may very easily produce horrors similar in scope to Daesh (ISIS). Until Chinese leadership will completely go mad it will continue to support Kim dynasty simply because any alternatives will be more costly and more dangerous for China.

This post was last modified: 21.08.2015 05:08 by Lord Alexander.

21.08.2015 05:02
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