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Economics is not a real science (xpost r/badphilosophy) - Printable Version

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Economics is not a real science (xpost r/badphilosophy) - gamora77 - 19.03.2019 07:56

I think most sciences can learn from the harder sciences

The line between the "soft" and "hard" sciences is pretty arbitrary and not very useful. But this is the least of this post's problems, so let's forge ahead.

Of course, economics involves way too many variables

Of course it does. But this doesn't mean that we can't attempt to study it. Nor does it mean that any attempt to learn anything from it is futile. Econometric methods don't exist to show off mathematical wankery; they surprisingly have a better purpose.

and it is pretty much impossible to do controlled experiments

Nor are controlled experiments always necessary.

I wonder if there are papers done on trying to predict past events based solely on even older situations

It depends. If we take this to mean a time-course model mimicking real-world data, then that happens all the time during model identification. But identifying a model based on a given dataset in a specified year range, of course, isn't the same as predicting events in that year range.

If OP wanted models predicting exogenous shocks or something, then their expectations are a bit too high.

the more rigour, the more reliable results become, the more reliable predictions become.

I wonder if there are papers done on trying to predict past events based solely on even older situations

Forecasting isn't all that economics is. It's a pretty narrow way to think about the field.


RE: Economics is not a real science (xpost r/badphilosophy) - Titian - 19.03.2019 19:20

gamora77 Wrote:
and it is pretty much impossible to do controlled experiments


Nah. Economic Experiments are, in fact, absolutely possible. The only three obstacles are, time costs and minor ethical annoyances such as the death toll.
That's why politicians and revolutionaries are so useful: They make people happily ruin, starve and masacre themselves and thus allow rich data generation.


RE: Economics is not a real science (xpost r/badphilosophy) - Shenat - 20.03.2019 01:09

There have been many cases of using historical data to predict the occurrence of future data. Recent historical data is used to gauge the accuracy of the models. For seasonal such patterns, the Holt-Winters model may be worth a look.

Ultimately science is the methodical study of a subject. Economics of course cant be studied on a micro scale, but instead as a prediction of overall events (not unlike geology, chemistry, ect). It of course would be widely different than physics, but that does not mean it is not a science.


RE: Economics is not a real science (xpost r/badphilosophy) - MrProper - 20.03.2019 01:42

Sorry guys, this is just one of those bots that have been haunting our forums recently. It is not an actual player. No content otherwise, and which new players opens such a thread without ever having played a state in Ars Regendi?

The orginal post by a real person can be found here by the way.