Post Reply  Post Thread 

Stats error???

Author Message
MarcusAquila
Member
*


Posts: 125
Words count: 18,923
Group: Basic
Joined: Aug2012
Status: Offline
Reputation: 2
Experience: 50
Glory Points: 25
Medals: 2

Post: #1
Stats error???

Recently...
...GDP went from 6.4 trillion to 7.7 trillion.
...unemployment went from 6% to .22%
...and economic growth "grew" at -4.82%

Is there an error is this just a fluke economic swing?


The hand of the aggressor is stayed by strength and strength alone.
Gen. Dwight Eisenhower

I am in earnest – I will not equivocate – I will not excuse – I will not retreat a single inch – AND I WILL BE HEARD.
William Lloyd Garrison
16.08.2013 02:56
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Titian
Benevolently Watching You
*


Posts: 5,325
Words count: 557,754
Group: Basic
Joined: Nov2009
Status: Offline
Reputation: 95
Experience: 1706
Glory Points: 1364680
Medals: 5643

Post: #2
RE: Stats error???

What's your rate of inflation? The GDP growth that you get displayed in your own states is REAL GDP change to previous quarter (unless specified otherwise).

Judging from these figures I'd say your prices went up by about 26%. I'm not sure whether this number is correct though. Your state doesn't make the impression of going through extreme inflation.
However, if this is correct and depending on the freedom of your economy this can also explain the massive drop in unemployment:
Considering the sticky wage model nominal income remained constant whilst prices went up dramatically, thus significantly pushing down real wages (and also real unemployment benefits if those aren't tied to inflation) and increasing the demand for labour (as well as the supply of labour, but that depends on the disposable real income).
Do you know by how much the gap between net income and living costs has changed?


"If you grab them by their balls, their hearts and minds will follow." (Yes, Minister)

This post was last modified: 16.08.2013 04:26 by Titian.

16.08.2013 04:22
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Sheep
Admin
******


Posts: 13,190
Words count: 691,655
Group: Admin
Joined: Jan2008
Status: Offline
Reputation: 252
Experience: 5731
Glory Points: 195
Medals: 8

Post: #3
RE: Stats error???

It looks like "Apprenticeships" had a strong effect on your state, especially because of the huge increase of PE Subsidies. Money supply is now somewhat short which can cause some trouble.


16.08.2013 19:21
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MarcusAquila
Member
*


Posts: 125
Words count: 18,923
Group: Basic
Joined: Aug2012
Status: Offline
Reputation: 2
Experience: 50
Glory Points: 25
Medals: 2

Post: #4
RE: Stats error???

My rate of inflation is .34%. And this is the third quarter of economic growth at -5% or higher (currently 7.77%). GDP did go back down to 7.1 trillion but exchange rate exploded from $1.04 to $1.16

Net Income is around 1700 and Cost of Living is 812 (up from 750 but still not by too much).

Apprenticeships shouldn't have drastically effected the unemployment rate in such a manner right? I mean, not even the employment/labor reforms change stats like that. Unemployment rate has increased to 2% from .22% but I attribute this change to my recent immigration stance (no immigration restrictions).


The hand of the aggressor is stayed by strength and strength alone.
Gen. Dwight Eisenhower

I am in earnest – I will not equivocate – I will not excuse – I will not retreat a single inch – AND I WILL BE HEARD.
William Lloyd Garrison
17.08.2013 11:45
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Titian
Benevolently Watching You
*


Posts: 5,325
Words count: 557,754
Group: Basic
Joined: Nov2009
Status: Offline
Reputation: 95
Experience: 1706
Glory Points: 1364680
Medals: 5643

Post: #5
RE: Stats error???

Hm, even if the apprenticeship task affected unemployment that much, the numbers just don't match.
It almost seems like that, besides other issues, employment isn't properly linked to GDP Suspect

Btw, is there any way to include gross income (i.e. income before it's turned into net income) into the details?


"If you grab them by their balls, their hearts and minds will follow." (Yes, Minister)

17.08.2013 12:32
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Sheep
Admin
******


Posts: 13,190
Words count: 691,655
Group: Admin
Joined: Jan2008
Status: Offline
Reputation: 252
Experience: 5731
Glory Points: 195
Medals: 8

Post: #6
RE: Stats error???

MarcusAquila Wrote:
And this is the third quarter of economic growth at -5% or higher (currently 7.77%). GDP did go back down to 7.1 trillion but exchange rate exploded from $1.04 to $1.16


Again: Money supply is not enough.

Quote:
Apprenticeships shouldn't have drastically effected the unemployment rate in such a manner right?


It's extreme in your state because unemployment wasn't high anyway. The state pays a lot of subsidies for apprentices, so companies are tempted to declare their regular workers apprentices.


17.08.2013 13:04
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Sheep
Admin
******


Posts: 13,190
Words count: 691,655
Group: Admin
Joined: Jan2008
Status: Offline
Reputation: 252
Experience: 5731
Glory Points: 195
Medals: 8

Post: #7
RE: Stats error???

Titian Wrote:
It almost seems like that, besides other issues, employment isn't properly linked to GDP


What's the proper link from your point of view?

As far as I know as a player, Ars Regendi behaves as following:

* GDP increase means unemployment decrease
* GDP increase means automation increase means unemployment decrease
* GDP increase means net income increase
* Unemployment decrease means net income decrease

Quote:
Btw, is there any way to include gross income (i.e. income before it's turned into net income) into the details?


I will ask Malone...


17.08.2013 13:04
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Titian
Benevolently Watching You
*


Posts: 5,325
Words count: 557,754
Group: Basic
Joined: Nov2009
Status: Offline
Reputation: 95
Experience: 1706
Glory Points: 1364680
Medals: 5643

Post: #8
RE: Stats error???

Sheep Wrote:

Titian Wrote:
It almost seems like that, besides other issues, employment isn't properly linked to GDP


What's the proper link from your point of view?

As far as I know as a player, Ars Regendi behaves as following:

* GDP increase means unemployment decrease
* GDP increase means automation increase means unemployment decrease
* GDP increase means net income increase
* Unemployment decrease means net income decrease

Quote:
Btw, is there any way to include gross income (i.e. income before it's turned into net income) into the details?


I will ask Malone...


I see...

well, if this is actually the way it is I'd like to make a couple of comments.
This might take me some time though. Would you prefer me to send you a PM or is it ok to post them in this thread? I can even remain silent if that's less tedious for you Pfeif


"If you grab them by their balls, their hearts and minds will follow." (Yes, Minister)

17.08.2013 14:27
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Sheep
Admin
******


Posts: 13,190
Words count: 691,655
Group: Admin
Joined: Jan2008
Status: Offline
Reputation: 252
Experience: 5731
Glory Points: 195
Medals: 8

Post: #9
RE: Stats error???

Titian Wrote:
well, if this is actually the way it is I'd like to make a couple of comments.
This might take me some time though. Would you prefer me to send you a PM or is it ok to post them in this thread? I can even remain silent if that's less tedious for you Pfeif


Game mechanics are Malone's business - so better write to him. I'd recommend a rough sketch first, to check whether he is interested in discussing it...


17.08.2013 15:55
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply  Post Thread 

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
  an error AntyCrist 22 4,142 05.10.2015 17:15
Last Post: Lord Alexander
Shy Graph Error Zayaz 12 2,291 16.03.2014 09:04
Last Post: optimus rex
  error in Random Event - missing label Kilgore Trout 0 1,029 18.10.2013 12:51
Last Post: Kilgore Trout
  imput error AntyCrist 2 1,268 23.08.2012 04:07
Last Post: AntyCrist
  Factual error in the help text about Special Actions Lord Alexander 0 1,119 10.03.2012 13:40
Last Post: Lord Alexander
  world state error? beste 1 1,275 19.10.2011 07:44
Last Post: TyPin
  Currency parity error Helsworth 41 10,683 07.05.2011 12:24
Last Post: Helsworth
  Stats bugged Jakerp 5 1,440 25.10.2010 14:39
Last Post: Timse201
  Error on World London beste 2 1,320 20.06.2010 14:57
Last Post: comfreak
  World London Error Valorum 3 1,170 23.03.2010 23:07
Last Post: teffy

View a Printable Version
Send this Thread to a Friend
Subscribe to this Thread | Add Thread to Favorites

Forum Jump: